Women Voters Likely To Support Obama In 2012, EMILY's List Poll Says

Female voters who abandoned the Democratic Party in the midterms are likely to come back and support President Obama in 2012, particularly if he is running against former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R), according to an EMILY's List Women's Monitor poll scheduled for release on Wednesday, Politico reports. While Democrats beat Republicans in 2008 in support among female voters, exit polls from the 2010 midterm elections show that Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats in female supporters. Gaining back female voters is "an urgent priority" for Democrats in the next presidential election cycle, Politico reports.

The Women's Monitor poll -- conducted Nov. 4 through Nov. 14 by the Democratic Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group -- tested 608 women voters who supported Obama in 2008 but did not vote or voted for Republican or third-party candidates in this year's midterms. Of the voters polled, one-third supported Republicans, three-fifths did not vote, and the remainder supported independent or minor-party candidates.

The poll found that 62% of respondents would support Obama in 2012, while 23% would lean toward a GOP alternative. Among women who voted for Obama in 2008 but voted Republican in the 2010 midterms, 40% said they would support Obama in 2012, compared with 45% who said they would support a generic GOP candidate.

When pitted against Palin, women who voted Republican in 2010 said they would support Obama by a 40-point margin, 62% to 22%. Overall, 80% of women surveyed said they would support Obama and only 10% said they would support Palin. The poll shows that only 12% of the so-called "Obama drop-off voters" said they had a somewhat or very positive view of Palin, while 66% said they had a negative view of her and 44% said they had a very negative view.

The poll is the second Women's Monitor poll conducted this fall, according to Politico. The earlier survey was taken in September and surveyed women who were newly registered in 2008 or who often vote in presidential elections but not midterms. The poll -- also backed by EMILY's List -- found that only 38% of respondents said the midterms would have a significant effect on them if the GOP took control of Congress (Burns, Politico, 12/15).


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